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Gold Value and Gold Prices From 1971 - 2021: An Empirical Model, by Gary Christenson
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"•“Gold Value and Gold Prices: 1971 – 2021” takes the reader on a journey of discovery that includes:
•Why expert opinions regarding gold prices are often not helpful.
•A history of gold prices since President Nixon closed the “Gold Window” in 1971.
•The macro-economic variables used to empirically model the price of gold.
•The formula for the Gold Empirical Model that accurately replicated the price of gold since 1971.
•What the model projects for gold prices from 2014 - 2021.
•Gold cycles, important ratios, and market bubbles.
•Why counter-party risk and the Quantitative Easing policy pursued by the Federal Reserve and most other central banks will impact the price of gold and your financial future.
•Why Fed policies and exponentially increasing debt will force gold prices and consumer price inflation much higher.
•Central bank gold sales and their impact upon gold prices.
•You will understand why you must own gold. Then you will learn where, how, and when to both buy and sell gold."
- Sales Rank: #1030987 in eBooks
- Published on: 2014-08-18
- Released on: 2014-08-18
- Format: Kindle eBook
About the Author
GE Christenson is the owner and writer for the popular investment site www.deviantinvestor.com. He is a retired accountant and business manager with 30 years of experience studying markets, investing, and trading. Many years ago he did graduate work in physics. He currently lives in Granbury, Texas with his wife.
Most helpful customer reviews
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Mainly for gold bugs
By Frank Wiesner
Although this book delivers some interesting insights, it is in essence just the usual gold bug manual mainly written for gold fans who want to confirm their conviction that gold is going to rise. True believers will certainly know most of the points.
The empirical price model is the interesting part. The author suggests to buy gold when the gold price is lower then the fair value the model derives.
The author uses only a few macroeconomic variables; too many variables can fit any curve. There is logic in his formula, but that does not guarantee a reasonable prediction of the future. To arrive at his long term forecast he makes strong assumptions far into the future. For instance the S&P is assumed to stagnate till 2021. That is quite possible, but who knows, maybe it doubles in that 7 years. Sovereign debt is assumed to grow 11% per year. At least the Clinton years have shown that there is no law of nature of ever growing sovereign debt. His long term forecast to 2021 is therefore not really a forecast but instead a scenario.
The part about analyzing bubbles is in my humble opinion outright nonsense. He states that a bubble has 2 boom phases (boom 1, correction, boom 2 or blowoff) and that there are well established ratios between the duration and the height of boom 1 and the blowoff boom. Boom 1 for gold was 2001 to 2011, boom 2 is yet to come. I sincerely doubt that forecasting bubbles is that easy.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
A compelling argument for Investing in Gold
By MR W.
A short but worthwhile read. If you are invested already this should give you much needed hope.
The paperback version is probably not needed I recommend the Kindle version for cheapness.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
pretty interesting look at the different ways to measure the ...
By Kindle Customer
pretty interesting look at the different ways to measure the current gold price at any time. Very short read. Good for a first time reader about precious metals.
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